SpaceX Q3 Earnings Today: Starlink, AI Revenue and Tesla Merger Talk in Focus
SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the US market closes today, with Wall Street expecting about $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion in revenue led by Starlink and AI. Investors also want clues on Tesla merger talk.
Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Time: 11:43 AM ET
SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the US market closes today, with Wall Street expecting about $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion in revenue led by Starlink and AI. Investors also want clues on Tesla merger talk.
What Wall Street Expects
This is only SpaceX’s second report since its record June IPO. LSEG consensus points to revenue of $12.72 billion and earnings of 13 cents per share, according to CNBC’s live coverage. Other estimates sit near $12.89 billion. Either way, it would be a big jump from $7.8 billion in the second quarter. The webcast starts at 4:30 p.m. ET, and this story will be updated when results arrive.
Starlink: The Steady Cash Engine
Subscriber Growth
Connectivity revenue, which includes Starlink, rose 66% to $4.3 billion in the second quarter, with about 12 million subscribers. Analysts now expect roughly $4.8 billion in revenue and 14.3 million consumer subscribers.
Starlink Mobile and Spectrum
On October 8, SpaceX agreed to buy 800 MHz of spectrum from Grain Management for about $8 billion, pending FCC approval. The purchase supports Starlink Mobile, which aims to compete with major US carriers. For background on why such approvals are complicated, see our guide to telecom licensing and performance bonds.
AI Revenue: The Biggest Swing Factor
After buying xAI in February, SpaceX began renting out computing power to customers including Google, Anthropic and Reflection AI. AI revenue was about $2.56 billion last quarter, and analysts expect more than $6 billion now. Businesses curious about similar technology can read how AI tools fit into daily business operations.
The Spending Question
The catch is cost. AI spending reached $15.8 billion last quarter, and SpaceX posted a net loss of $541 million, as TechCrunch reported on the first earnings. Analysts expect third-quarter capital spending near $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow around negative $11.6 billion. Management says new computing capacity pays for itself in under a year, but S&P Global has warned about AI-related liabilities that are not yet visible.
Tesla Merger Speculation
Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which later converted into SpaceX shares, and SpaceX’s AI unit has bought Tesla Megapacks and Cybertrucks. Before the IPO, COO Gwynne Shotwell said a merger “might make Elon’s life a little easier.” No deal has been announced, so this remains speculation. Still, any hint from either company could move both stocks.
What US Investors Should Watch
- Starlink subscriber numbers and revenue per user
- AI revenue compared with capital spending
- Progress toward the $100 billion annualized revenue target by December
- Any comment on a Tesla deal
SPCX closed Friday at $146.03, about 28% below its June high, so sharp moves after earnings are possible. This is general information, not financial advice.
Conclusion
Starlink looks like the dependable growth story, while AI offers the biggest reward and the biggest risk. The numbers after the bell will show whether heavy spending is turning into lasting profit. For more tech coverage, explore how AI and quantum computing are shaping the future.
Author’s Review
In my view, today’s report is less about headline revenue and more about whether AI spending turns into steady profit. Starlink feels like the reliable part of the story, while the AI numbers carry the most risk. I would treat merger talk carefully until the companies say something official, and I would wait for the actual figures before drawing conclusions.
Elena Rostova
B2B Operations Consultant & Business Editor
Elena Rostova is a B2B strategy consultant specializing in digital operations, regulatory risk management, and scaling business models. She writes on corporate licensing, operational frameworks, and enterprise growth.
